Whats your opinio on the bubble of Shanghai’s real estate?
Recently I heard that the RMB may devalue sharply and the bubble of Shanghai’s real estate may be pierced after the World Expo.Is it ture?May put aside of this question away and I tell you a story. Tulips were introduced into Holland before the 17th century but it did not take long for the flowers to gain popularity among the upper classes.Flower of such beauty and rarity soon became symbols of power and prestige and the rich tried to lay their hands on some to display in their gardens. By 1634, the whole country was so fascinated by tulips that all other activities almost came to a stop.People were trading in tulips and even buying and selling unsprouted flowers.It was similar to the futures market today,where traders are buying and selling crude oil or cotton which they will never see.As the tulip trades increased,regular markets were set up on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam and other towns.That happened in the year 1636 when the craze was reaching its peak. The bubble finally burst in 1637.For some unknown reasons maybe a group of people suddenly realized the madness tulips failed to command and usual inflated prices in a gathering.Word spread and the market crashed.As in all asset bubbles,it took time to propel prices to such extraordinary levels,but it only took a single pierce to burst the bubble.When confidence destroyed,it could not be recovered and prices kept falling until they were one-tenth of those set during the peak.Soon the nobles became poor and the rich became paupers.Cries of distress resounded everywhere in Holland. Why do I bring up this story that happend centuries ago?It is because greed is a part of human nature and short memory is an investor trait,we just never seem to learn from past mistakes.Then you try to think about the event of Shanghai Disney,the price of real estate related Shanghai Disney has multiplied several times.Perhaps it is another “tulip craze”.